Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →22.6%
Sociedad
22.9%
Draw
54.6%
Real Madrid
Expected Goals (xG)
1.17
Sociedad
vs
1.92
Real Madrid
Markets
BTTS59.1%
Over 0.595.1%
Over 1.581.7%
Over 2.559.6%
Over 3.537.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.6%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
8.4%
0-1
8.4%
1-3
6.3%
2-1
6.0%
2-2
5.7%
0-3
5.4%
1-0
5.0%
0-0
4.9%
2-3
3.7%
2-0
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).