Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →66.9%
Chesterfield
18.1%
Draw
15.0%
Newport County
Expected Goals (xG)
2.25
Chesterfield
vs
0.95
Newport County
Markets
BTTS54.6%
Over 0.596.3%
Over 1.582.5%
Over 2.562.0%
Over 3.539.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
10.3%
2-1
9.8%
1-0
9.5%
1-1
8.4%
3-0
7.7%
3-1
7.3%
2-2
4.7%
4-0
4.3%
0-1
4.2%
1-2
4.2%
4-1
4.1%
0-0
3.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).