Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →77.1%
Almeria
15.2%
Draw
7.7%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
2.39
Almeria
vs
0.61
Lugo
Markets
BTTS41.5%
Over 0.595.1%
Over 1.580.0%
Over 2.557.7%
Over 3.535.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.2%
1-0
12.0%
3-0
11.3%
2-1
8.7%
1-1
7.2%
3-1
6.9%
4-0
6.8%
0-0
4.9%
4-1
4.1%
5-0
3.2%
0-1
3.1%
2-2
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).