Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.2%
Carlisle
24.7%
Draw
31.1%
Cheltenham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.48
Carlisle
vs
1.20
Cheltenham
Markets
BTTS53.5%
Over 0.593.6%
Over 1.574.3%
Over 2.550.1%
Over 3.528.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.7%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
8.7%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.3%
0-0
6.4%
2-2
5.4%
0-2
4.9%
3-1
4.5%
3-0
3.7%
1-3
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).