Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.2%
Moreirense
29.3%
Draw
24.5%
Santa Clara
Expected Goals (xG)
1.18
Moreirense
vs
0.77
Santa Clara
Markets
BTTS36.5%
Over 0.586.3%
Over 1.557.3%
Over 2.530.9%
Over 3.513.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.4%
0-0
13.7%
1-1
12.3%
0-1
11.5%
2-0
9.9%
2-1
7.6%
1-2
4.9%
0-2
4.2%
3-0
3.9%
3-1
3.0%
2-2
2.9%
1-3
1.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).