Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.6%
Setubal
24.6%
Draw
22.8%
Maritimo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.54
Setubal
vs
0.91
Maritimo
Markets
BTTS46.4%
Over 0.591.9%
Over 1.569.7%
Over 2.544.3%
Over 3.523.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.8%
1-1
11.6%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
8.4%
0-0
8.1%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
5.3%
3-1
4.8%
2-2
4.2%
0-2
3.6%
3-2
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).