Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →19.6%
Newport County
20.2%
Draw
60.2%
Swindon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.06
Newport County
vs
2.04
Swindon
Markets
BTTS56.5%
Over 0.595.9%
Over 1.581.1%
Over 2.559.9%
Over 3.537.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-2
9.9%
0-1
9.6%
1-1
9.4%
0-2
9.3%
1-3
6.7%
0-3
6.3%
2-2
5.3%
2-1
5.2%
1-0
5.2%
0-0
4.1%
2-3
3.6%
1-4
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).