⚽ FootballData
3 – 2
HHT: 21CSV

11 Dec 2022 · 11:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

View all models →
63.6%
Cagliari
24.8%
Draw
11.7%
Perugia

Expected Goals (xG)

1.74

Cagliari

vs
0.61

Perugia

Markets

BTTS38.8%
Over 0.589.5%
Over 1.569.1%
Over 2.541.7%
Over 3.521.1%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
15.5%
2-0
14.4%
1-1
11.2%
0-0
10.5%
2-1
8.8%
3-0
8.3%
3-1
5.1%
0-1
4.8%
4-0
3.6%
1-2
3.1%
2-2
2.7%
4-1
2.2%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).