Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →70.5%
Port Vale
18.0%
Draw
11.5%
Barnsley
Expected Goals (xG)
2.14
Port Vale
vs
0.72
Barnsley
Markets
BTTS45.1%
Over 0.594.6%
Over 1.577.7%
Over 2.554.6%
Over 3.532.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
13.1%
1-0
12.5%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
9.4%
1-1
8.5%
3-1
6.7%
0-0
5.4%
4-0
5.0%
0-1
4.4%
4-1
3.6%
2-2
3.4%
1-2
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).