Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.7%
Aston Villa
29.7%
Draw
29.5%
Brighton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.41
Aston Villa
vs
1.17
Brighton
Markets
BTTS53.9%
Over 0.590.7%
Over 1.574.6%
Over 2.547.7%
Over 3.526.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.2%
0-0
9.3%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
8.8%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.3%
0-1
7.1%
0-2
5.2%
2-2
5.2%
3-1
4.1%
3-0
3.5%
1-3
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).