Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →12.3%
Moreirense
21.3%
Draw
66.4%
Benfica
Expected Goals (xG)
0.77
Moreirense
vs
2.04
Benfica
Markets
BTTS47.4%
Over 0.593.2%
Over 1.577.8%
Over 2.553.3%
Over 3.531.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
12.6%
0-1
11.6%
1-1
10.2%
1-2
9.6%
0-3
8.5%
0-0
6.8%
1-3
6.6%
0-4
4.4%
1-0
3.9%
2-2
3.7%
2-1
3.6%
1-4
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).