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02 Aug 2024 · 18:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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44.4%
Crawley Town
19.1%
Draw
36.5%
Man United

Expected Goals (xG)

2.34

Crawley Town

vs
2.12

Man United

Markets

BTTS79.3%
Over 0.599.0%
Over 1.593.5%
Over 2.582.2%
Over 3.565.1%

Most Likely Scorelines

2-2
7.1%
2-1
6.7%
1-2
6.1%
1-1
5.6%
3-2
5.5%
3-1
5.2%
2-3
5.0%
1-3
4.3%
3-3
3.9%
4-2
3.2%
2-0
3.2%
4-1
3.1%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).