Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.0%
Norwich
27.1%
Draw
28.8%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.54
Norwich
vs
1.21
Derby
Markets
BTTS56.2%
Over 0.592.6%
Over 1.577.1%
Over 2.551.9%
Over 3.529.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.9%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
8.8%
2-0
7.6%
0-0
7.4%
1-2
7.2%
0-1
6.7%
2-2
5.6%
3-1
4.7%
0-2
4.7%
3-0
3.9%
1-3
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).