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20 Feb 2016

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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48.5%
Vicenza
28.5%
Draw
23.1%
Avellino

Expected Goals (xG)

1.50

Vicenza

vs
0.96

Avellino

Markets

BTTS49.3%
Over 0.590.3%
Over 1.571.8%
Over 2.544.7%
Over 3.523.5%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
13.5%
1-0
11.5%
0-0
9.7%
2-0
9.6%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
7.0%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
4.8%
3-1
4.6%
2-2
4.5%
0-2
4.0%
3-2
2.2%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).