Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →71.3%
Barcelona
15.9%
Draw
12.8%
Villarreal
Expected Goals (xG)
2.77
Barcelona
vs
1.14
Villarreal
Markets
BTTS63.9%
Over 0.597.8%
Over 1.590.4%
Over 2.574.8%
Over 3.554.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
8.8%
3-1
8.1%
2-0
7.7%
3-0
7.1%
1-1
6.5%
4-1
5.6%
1-0
5.3%
2-2
5.0%
4-0
4.9%
3-2
4.6%
1-2
3.6%
4-2
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).