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21 Oct 2025 · 20:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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29.6%
Bristol City
26.5%
Draw
44.0%
Southampton

Expected Goals (xG)

1.26

Bristol City

vs
1.58

Southampton

Markets

BTTS57.6%
Over 0.593.3%
Over 1.578.3%
Over 2.553.8%
Over 3.531.5%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
12.5%
1-2
9.2%
0-1
8.4%
2-1
7.3%
0-2
7.3%
0-0
6.7%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
5.8%
1-3
4.8%
2-0
4.6%
0-3
3.8%
3-1
3.1%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).