Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →66.1%
Chesterfield
18.8%
Draw
15.1%
Sutton
Expected Goals (xG)
2.50
Chesterfield
vs
1.15
Sutton
Markets
BTTS63.4%
Over 0.596.8%
Over 1.588.5%
Over 2.570.6%
Over 3.549.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.3%
2-0
8.1%
1-1
8.1%
3-1
7.8%
3-0
6.8%
1-0
5.9%
2-2
5.4%
4-1
4.9%
3-2
4.5%
1-2
4.3%
4-0
4.2%
0-0
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).