Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →20.8%
Wigan
27.0%
Draw
52.2%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
0.69
Wigan
vs
1.29
Derby
Markets
BTTS35.1%
Over 0.587.3%
Over 1.557.9%
Over 2.531.9%
Over 3.514.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
18.8%
0-0
12.7%
0-2
11.5%
1-1
11.2%
1-0
10.5%
1-2
7.9%
0-3
5.0%
2-1
4.2%
1-3
3.4%
2-0
3.3%
2-2
2.7%
0-4
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).