Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.3%
Perugia
29.1%
Draw
24.6%
Spezia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.44
Perugia
vs
0.98
Spezia
Markets
BTTS49.0%
Over 0.589.9%
Over 1.570.8%
Over 2.543.6%
Over 3.522.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.8%
1-0
11.5%
0-0
10.1%
2-0
9.2%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.5%
1-2
6.2%
2-2
4.4%
3-0
4.4%
3-1
4.3%
0-2
4.3%
3-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).