Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →66.9%
Genoa
22.9%
Draw
10.2%
Spal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.87
Genoa
vs
0.60
Spal
Markets
BTTS39.2%
Over 0.590.6%
Over 1.571.6%
Over 2.544.9%
Over 3.523.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.8%
2-0
14.8%
1-1
10.4%
0-0
9.4%
3-0
9.2%
2-1
8.9%
3-1
5.5%
4-0
4.3%
0-1
4.1%
1-2
2.9%
2-2
2.7%
4-1
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).