Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.2%
Hamburg
23.7%
Draw
28.1%
St Pauli
Expected Goals (xG)
1.96
Hamburg
vs
1.47
St Pauli
Markets
BTTS67.0%
Over 0.595.8%
Over 1.586.5%
Over 2.566.5%
Over 3.544.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.3%
2-1
9.2%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
6.0%
1-0
5.5%
3-2
4.4%
0-0
4.2%
3-0
4.1%
0-1
3.9%
0-2
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).