Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.2%
Sheffield Weds
27.0%
Draw
28.8%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.22
Sheffield Weds
vs
0.92
Derby
Markets
BTTS41.2%
Over 0.589.3%
Over 1.561.8%
Over 2.536.0%
Over 3.516.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.5%
1-1
12.1%
0-1
11.9%
0-0
10.7%
2-0
8.8%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
6.0%
0-2
5.0%
2-2
3.7%
3-0
3.6%
3-1
3.3%
1-3
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).