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25 Mar 2016

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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58.3%
Forest Green
20.8%
Draw
20.8%
Aldershot

Expected Goals (xG)

2.31

Forest Green

vs
1.35

Aldershot

Markets

BTTS67.3%
Over 0.596.7%
Over 1.588.7%
Over 2.570.7%
Over 3.549.7%

Most Likely Scorelines

2-1
9.3%
1-1
8.7%
3-1
7.1%
2-0
6.9%
2-2
6.2%
1-2
5.4%
3-0
5.3%
1-0
5.3%
3-2
4.8%
4-1
4.1%
0-0
3.3%
4-0
3.1%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).