Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →78.1%
Porto
16.8%
Draw
5.1%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
2.16
Porto
vs
0.40
Nacional
Markets
BTTS29.3%
Over 0.591.8%
Over 1.572.7%
Over 2.547.0%
Over 3.525.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
18.1%
1-0
16.4%
3-0
13.0%
0-0
8.2%
2-1
7.2%
1-1
7.0%
4-0
7.0%
3-1
5.2%
5-0
3.0%
4-1
2.8%
0-1
2.7%
2-2
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).