Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →13.5%
Accrington
20.5%
Draw
66.0%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
0.63
Accrington
vs
1.78
Derby
Markets
BTTS38.1%
Over 0.591.9%
Over 1.568.6%
Over 2.543.4%
Over 3.522.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
16.8%
0-2
14.2%
1-1
9.2%
1-2
9.0%
0-3
8.4%
0-0
8.1%
1-0
6.5%
1-3
5.3%
0-4
3.8%
2-1
3.2%
2-2
2.8%
1-4
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).