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20 Aug 2024 · 18:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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49.1%
Newcastle
22.2%
Draw
28.6%
Westfield

Expected Goals (xG)

1.82

Newcastle

vs
1.34

Westfield

Markets

BTTS61.5%
Over 0.596.1%
Over 1.582.0%
Over 2.561.2%
Over 3.538.9%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
8.0%
2-0
7.0%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
6.3%
0-1
6.0%
3-1
5.7%
3-0
4.3%
0-0
3.9%
3-2
3.8%
0-2
3.8%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).