Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →35.4%
Burton
25.2%
Draw
39.5%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.18
Burton
vs
1.27
Luton
Markets
BTTS48.7%
Over 0.592.4%
Over 1.569.1%
Over 2.544.2%
Over 3.523.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
12.0%
1-1
11.9%
1-0
11.3%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
7.6%
0-0
7.6%
0-2
6.9%
2-0
6.0%
2-2
4.8%
1-3
3.5%
3-1
3.0%
0-3
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).