Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →42.3%
Estrela
30.9%
Draw
26.8%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.24
Estrela
vs
0.93
Tondela
Markets
BTTS44.2%
Over 0.587.6%
Over 1.565.0%
Over 2.537.1%
Over 3.517.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.2%
1-0
13.1%
0-0
12.4%
0-1
9.6%
2-0
8.8%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
6.1%
0-2
4.9%
2-2
3.8%
3-0
3.6%
3-1
3.4%
1-3
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).