Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →85.5%
Benfica
10.9%
Draw
3.6%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
2.58
Benfica
vs
0.35
Tondela
Markets
BTTS27.3%
Over 0.594.9%
Over 1.578.9%
Over 2.556.3%
Over 3.533.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
17.7%
3-0
15.3%
1-0
13.9%
4-0
9.9%
2-1
6.2%
3-1
5.4%
5-0
5.1%
0-0
5.1%
1-1
4.6%
4-1
3.5%
0-1
2.1%
5-1
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).