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10 Aug 2024 · 15:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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30.9%
Salford
25.3%
Draw
43.8%
Port Vale

Expected Goals (xG)

1.14

Salford

vs
1.41

Port Vale

Markets

BTTS50.8%
Over 0.592.7%
Over 1.571.7%
Over 2.546.8%
Over 3.525.2%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
12.0%
0-1
11.6%
1-0
9.4%
1-2
8.9%
0-2
7.8%
0-0
7.3%
2-1
7.1%
2-0
5.1%
2-2
5.0%
1-3
4.2%
0-3
3.7%
3-1
2.7%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).