Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →51.2%
Derby
26.9%
Draw
21.9%
Preston
Expected Goals (xG)
1.58
Derby
vs
0.95
Preston
Markets
BTTS49.7%
Over 0.591.2%
Over 1.572.9%
Over 2.546.5%
Over 3.525.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.8%
1-0
11.7%
2-0
9.9%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
8.8%
0-1
6.7%
1-2
5.7%
3-0
5.2%
3-1
5.0%
2-2
4.5%
0-2
3.6%
3-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).