Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.8%
Newport County
25.4%
Draw
33.8%
Morecambe
Expected Goals (xG)
1.37
Newport County
vs
1.22
Morecambe
Markets
BTTS52.1%
Over 0.593.0%
Over 1.572.6%
Over 2.548.0%
Over 3.526.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.0%
1-0
10.8%
0-1
9.6%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
7.7%
2-0
7.0%
0-0
7.0%
0-2
5.6%
2-2
5.2%
3-1
3.9%
3-0
3.2%
1-3
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).