Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.0%
Casa Pia
23.5%
Draw
26.5%
Maritimo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.64
Casa Pia
vs
1.12
Maritimo
Markets
BTTS53.9%
Over 0.594.2%
Over 1.575.8%
Over 2.552.2%
Over 3.530.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.1%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
8.5%
0-1
7.6%
1-2
6.5%
0-0
5.8%
2-2
5.3%
3-1
5.2%
3-0
4.7%
0-2
4.0%
3-2
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).