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03 May 2025 · 12:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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68.4%
Burnley
24.6%
Draw
7.0%
Millwall

Expected Goals (xG)

1.61

Burnley

vs
0.35

Millwall

Markets

BTTS24.3%
Over 0.585.2%
Over 1.558.9%
Over 2.531.2%
Over 3.513.5%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
22.0%
2-0
18.2%
0-0
14.8%
3-0
9.8%
1-1
8.6%
2-1
6.4%
0-1
4.3%
4-0
3.9%
3-1
3.4%
1-2
1.4%
4-1
1.4%
5-0
1.3%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).