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DHT: 11CSV

02 Apr 2016

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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40.3%
Northampton
29.9%
Draw
29.9%
Notts County

Expected Goals (xG)

1.08

Northampton

vs
0.88

Notts County

Markets

BTTS38.3%
Over 0.586.6%
Over 1.558.0%
Over 2.531.5%
Over 3.513.7%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
15.7%
0-0
13.4%
0-1
12.9%
1-1
12.9%
2-0
8.2%
2-1
7.2%
1-2
5.9%
0-2
5.5%
2-2
3.2%
3-0
3.0%
3-1
2.6%
1-3
1.7%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).