Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.5%
Estrela
22.7%
Draw
28.8%
Portimonense
Expected Goals (xG)
1.72
Estrela
vs
1.27
Portimonense
Markets
BTTS58.5%
Over 0.595.4%
Over 1.579.4%
Over 2.557.4%
Over 3.535.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.5%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
9.1%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.0%
0-1
6.9%
2-2
6.0%
3-1
5.4%
0-0
4.6%
3-0
4.3%
0-2
4.1%
3-2
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).