Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.5%
Rio Ave
22.5%
Draw
37.0%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.64
Rio Ave
vs
1.56
Arouca
Markets
BTTS63.3%
Over 0.596.4%
Over 1.582.5%
Over 2.562.1%
Over 3.539.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.0%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.1%
1-0
7.1%
0-1
6.8%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
5.5%
0-2
5.0%
3-1
4.7%
1-3
4.2%
3-2
3.7%
0-0
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).