Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →14.0%
Darlington
13.9%
Draw
72.1%
Man United
Expected Goals (xG)
1.41
Darlington
vs
3.16
Man United
Markets
BTTS72.2%
Over 0.599.1%
Over 1.594.1%
Over 2.583.4%
Over 3.566.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-3
7.7%
1-2
7.3%
1-4
6.1%
0-3
5.5%
2-3
5.4%
0-2
5.2%
2-2
5.1%
1-1
4.5%
0-4
4.3%
2-4
4.3%
1-5
3.8%
0-1
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).