Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →66.9%
Santander
18.2%
Draw
14.9%
Ponferradina
Expected Goals (xG)
2.31
Santander
vs
1.00
Ponferradina
Markets
BTTS56.8%
Over 0.596.4%
Over 1.584.2%
Over 2.564.3%
Over 3.542.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
9.8%
2-1
9.7%
1-0
8.5%
1-1
8.3%
3-0
7.5%
3-1
7.5%
2-2
4.9%
4-0
4.4%
4-1
4.3%
1-2
4.2%
3-2
3.7%
0-1
3.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).