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AHT: 11CSV

21 Apr 2024 · 15:15

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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24.2%
Almeria
21.2%
Draw
54.7%
Villarreal

Expected Goals (xG)

1.37

Almeria

vs
2.13

Villarreal

Markets

BTTS65.9%
Over 0.596.8%
Over 1.586.6%
Over 2.567.9%
Over 3.546.3%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-2
9.4%
1-1
9.0%
0-2
6.9%
1-3
6.7%
2-2
6.4%
0-1
6.3%
2-1
6.0%
0-3
4.9%
2-3
4.6%
1-0
4.0%
1-4
3.5%
0-0
3.2%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).