Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →24.2%
Almeria
21.2%
Draw
54.7%
Villarreal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.37
Almeria
vs
2.13
Villarreal
Markets
BTTS65.9%
Over 0.596.8%
Over 1.586.6%
Over 2.567.9%
Over 3.546.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-2
9.4%
1-1
9.0%
0-2
6.9%
1-3
6.7%
2-2
6.4%
0-1
6.3%
2-1
6.0%
0-3
4.9%
2-3
4.6%
1-0
4.0%
1-4
3.5%
0-0
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).