Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →68.7%
Ath Madrid
21.0%
Draw
10.2%
Deportivo Alavés
Expected Goals (xG)
1.88
Ath Madrid
vs
0.57
Deportivo Alavés
Markets
BTTS37.0%
Over 0.591.2%
Over 1.570.5%
Over 2.544.4%
Over 3.523.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.0%
2-0
15.2%
3-0
9.6%
1-1
9.4%
0-0
8.8%
2-1
8.7%
3-1
5.5%
0-1
4.7%
4-0
4.5%
1-2
2.6%
4-1
2.6%
2-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).