Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.8%
Alverca
27.6%
Draw
35.6%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.37
Alverca
vs
1.35
Arouca
Markets
BTTS56.3%
Over 0.592.5%
Over 1.576.5%
Over 2.551.2%
Over 3.529.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.1%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.2%
1-0
8.1%
0-1
7.9%
0-0
7.5%
2-0
6.2%
0-2
6.0%
2-2
5.6%
3-1
3.8%
1-3
3.7%
3-0
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).