Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.4%
Portsmouth
27.3%
Draw
33.3%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.13
Portsmouth
vs
1.01
Derby
Markets
BTTS42.0%
Over 0.589.4%
Over 1.562.0%
Over 2.536.2%
Over 3.517.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.4%
0-1
13.0%
1-1
12.3%
0-0
10.6%
2-1
7.6%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
6.0%
2-2
3.8%
3-1
2.9%
3-0
2.8%
1-3
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).