Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →5.9%
Watford
15.4%
Draw
78.7%
Chelsea
Expected Goals (xG)
0.63
Watford
vs
2.60
Chelsea
Markets
BTTS44.1%
Over 0.595.1%
Over 1.584.2%
Over 2.562.6%
Over 3.540.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
13.4%
0-3
11.6%
0-1
9.4%
1-2
8.4%
0-4
7.5%
1-1
7.4%
1-3
7.3%
0-0
4.9%
1-4
4.7%
0-5
3.9%
2-2
2.7%
1-5
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).