Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →69.6%
Almeria
18.9%
Draw
11.6%
Alcorcon
Expected Goals (xG)
2.09
Almeria
vs
0.71
Alcorcon
Markets
BTTS44.5%
Over 0.594.0%
Over 1.576.8%
Over 2.553.1%
Over 3.530.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
13.3%
1-0
12.8%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
9.3%
1-1
8.9%
3-1
6.6%
0-0
6.0%
4-0
4.8%
0-1
4.4%
4-1
3.4%
2-2
3.3%
1-2
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).