Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.5%
Notts County
24.1%
Draw
29.4%
Swindon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.55
Notts County
vs
1.18
Swindon
Markets
BTTS54.1%
Over 0.594.0%
Over 1.575.2%
Over 2.551.4%
Over 3.529.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.4%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
8.2%
2-0
7.9%
1-2
7.0%
0-0
6.0%
2-2
5.5%
3-1
4.8%
0-2
4.5%
3-0
4.1%
3-2
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).