Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →65.0%
Notts County
20.8%
Draw
14.2%
Morecambe
Expected Goals (xG)
1.87
Notts County
vs
0.72
Morecambe
Markets
BTTS43.2%
Over 0.592.9%
Over 1.572.7%
Over 2.548.0%
Over 3.526.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.4%
2-0
13.1%
1-1
9.7%
2-1
9.5%
3-0
8.1%
0-0
7.1%
3-1
5.9%
0-1
5.8%
4-0
3.8%
1-2
3.7%
2-2
3.4%
4-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).