Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →26.5%
Ponferradina
22.5%
Draw
51.0%
Santander
Expected Goals (xG)
1.28
Ponferradina
vs
1.86
Santander
Markets
BTTS60.9%
Over 0.595.8%
Over 1.582.0%
Over 2.560.8%
Over 3.538.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.2%
1-2
9.6%
0-1
8.1%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
6.6%
2-2
6.1%
1-3
5.9%
1-0
5.6%
0-3
4.6%
0-0
4.2%
2-3
3.8%
2-0
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).