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AHT: 11CSV

26 Oct 2024 · 12:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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22.0%
Morecambe
22.2%
Draw
55.8%
Chesterfield

Expected Goals (xG)

1.03

Morecambe

vs
1.79

Chesterfield

Markets

BTTS53.0%
Over 0.594.5%
Over 1.576.7%
Over 2.553.5%
Over 3.531.2%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
11.2%
1-1
10.5%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
9.6%
1-0
6.6%
1-3
5.9%
0-3
5.7%
2-1
5.6%
0-0
5.5%
2-2
5.0%
2-0
3.1%
2-3
3.0%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).