Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →30.6%
Blackburn
31.1%
Draw
38.4%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.03
Blackburn
vs
1.19
Derby
Markets
BTTS46.0%
Over 0.588.1%
Over 1.566.3%
Over 2.538.4%
Over 3.518.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.4%
0-0
11.9%
0-1
11.7%
1-0
10.1%
1-2
7.9%
0-2
7.7%
2-1
6.9%
2-0
5.8%
2-2
4.1%
1-3
3.1%
0-3
3.0%
3-1
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).